Winyah Bay – the ultimate crapshoot

Hump Day just got real: Elite pro James Niggemeyer said in a Facebook post that he'd seen a lot of things from the water, but spying a camel from his boat on Winyah Bay on Wednesday "takes the cake." Courtesy James Niggemeyer

Hump Day just got real: Elite pro James Niggemeyer said in a Facebook post that he’d seen a lot of things from the water, but spying a camel from his boat on Winyah Bay on Wednesday “takes the cake.”
Courtesy James Niggemeyer

GEORGETOWN, S.C. — You’ll know who the gamblers are after the four-day HUK Performance Fishing Bassmaster Elite at Winyah Bay presented by GoRVing, which begins here Thursday – maybe.

The high-rollers will make the two-hour run to the Cooper River for maybe four hours of fishing time before they have to run back. There’s a good chance to catch a five-bass limit of 16 to 18 pounds there.

For those playing it safe, the game plan will be staying close to fish the Pee Dee River, Waccamaw  River and other Winyah Bay tributaries, which offer fewer and smaller bass, but a near-guarantee of making it back on time and in one piece for check-in.

Jacob Powroznik is as competitive as any of the 110 anglers in this tournament. He finished third in the Elite Series Angler of the Year standings two years ago and fifth last year. But Powroznik thinks the risk out-weighs the reward in this case.

“If they’d give me 50th place right now, I’d go home,” Powroznik said. “I’m not going to roll the dice and go to the Cooper River.”

There’s a possibility that nobody goes anywhere Thursday. The forecast is for 20- to 30-mile-per-hour winds, with gusts to 40, and thunderstorms early in the morning.

But sooner or later, the winner of this tournament will probably be the angler who is willing to risk that long round trip for the reward of catching big bass in the Cooper River.

“Under normal conditions, probably half the field would go,” said Steve Kennedy, who emphasized that normal conditions aren’t in the weather forecast. “But for a lot of guys, this is about survival. If you want to make the (Bassmaster) Classic or compete for Angler of the Year, you’ve got to figure out a way to just survive this one.

“At the same time, this might be the easiest one to win.”

That’s if you’re willing to take the risk. Kennedy, like Powroznik, is definitely in survival mode.

“I’m staying close,” Kennedy said. “Seven or eight pounds a day will be good around here.”

Powroznik predicted a two-day total of 13 pounds will make the cut and earn a $10,000 check.

“We’re going to wipe them out the first day,” Powroznik said of the bass in the closer tributaries. “They’re not replenishing. You need to get lucky and catch a four- or five-pounder.”

Justin Lucas is pondering the risk, and he’s undoubtedly not the only one. He’s thinking play it safe one minute, and gambling big-time the next.

“I really don’t know what I’m going to do,” he said. “I’m probably not going to make that run. With no wind, that’s an hour-and-45 minutes one way. But at the same time, that’s probably where the tournament is going to be won.

“I want to be a factor at the end of the year again.”

Lucas finished second to Aaron Martens in last year’s AOY standings. There are many tournament days between now and the crowning of the 2016 AOY champion. But this tournament may have as big an influence on that outcome as any. And all these anglers know that.

It’s all about how much you’re willing to gamble at Winyah Bay.

Daily takeoffs begin at 7 a.m. (EDT) and weigh-ins at 3:15 p.m. at the Carroll Ashmore Campbell Marine Complex.