If you’ve been following any reports via social media, it’s a reasonable expectation that at the 2019 Toyota Bassmaster Texas Fest benefiting Texas Parks & Wildlife Department we may very well see a tournament-winning weight in excess of that elusive 100-pound mark — or the “century mark” as bass vernacular implies.
Big fish live at Fork. (Insert wide-eye emoji here)
Being that this derby is the Bassmaster Texas Fest, for one event only the Elite Series anglers adopt a “catch, weigh, release” format — with the exception that each angler can bring one fish to the scales per day measuring at or longer than 24 inches, per the Lake Fork slot limit.
That’s a big dang fish. I’d guess 9 pounds or better; weigh-ins will be exciting for sure.
Based on some insider information, here’s how we think this tournament will go down.
Water and Weather Conditions
There were concerns coming into the event that high lake levels would impact the fishing, there has been substantial rain in the region but Fork seems unaffected. According to a local source, Lake Fork is barely under full pool, and dropping. Full pool is 403.00 and as of the time of this writing, the lake is measuring 402.93.
That could certainly change if the impending storms over the next three days dump more rain than forecasted. For the most part, “heavy storms” that are known to occur here this time of year, usually dump heavy rains in small regions, rather than a long, multi-day soaker. The shorter bursts that usually accompany severe storms don’t typically affect the overall lake level. Not typically, anyways.
The watercolor is pretty good starting at the dam, almost clear by springtime Texas-lake standards. Clarity deteriorates as you move up lake on either side of the “fork.” However, the darker water isn’t dirty necessary, but stained. As far as I’m concerned, water conditions are good for catching fish all week up and down the impoundment.
Lots of generalities and assumptions there, just like forecasting the weather, I guess — well actually, it IS forecasting the weather. In other words, take them for what they’re worth, but the point I’m trying to make is a fishing pattern is likely to be established across the whole lake.
Based on conversations I’ve had with several local anglers, some of the pros, the bass are largely postspawn, but there will likely be a few stragglers on beds, and if someone can find one on a bed, it’ll likely be a giant — or an “over” as they’re called.
Likely Patterns
There are long tapering points, deep creek-channel ledges, mid-depth flats, sparse vegetation along the shoreline, plenty of docks, submerged brush, tens of thousands of standing trees ands stumps, and that many or more beneath the surface. In other words, if you like to fish, you’ll be able to find it.
With the bass in a postspawn pattern, you can bet there will be plenty of fish staging along river and creek channels off shore. That means big Texas and Carolina rigs could play, big jigs with large trailers and especially crankbaits that are capable of reaching different depths from 8 to 25 feet. Yes, that’s a wide spectrum, but fish will likely be at all points in between.
The deep crank bite is a classic summer pattern, but you can bet some of the postspawn bass have already set up there, but the areas in between deep ledges and shallow spawning flats is will be where the tournament will be won.
Shallow water will play, especially if a bedded beast or two can be located. Otherwise with the tremendous amount of standing timber and shoreline blowdowns, rest assured there will be bass staged in brushpiles and on the deep side of trees laying down from the shoreline.
For the anglers whose strength is flipping and pitching to timber and brush, Lake Fork is nearly heaven. There is plenty of wood for the flippers. But for those unafraid of dragging cranks armed with two giant trebles through the timber, big fish will be awaiting adjacent to trees.
Secondary Patterns
Those are the obvious patterns. But they could producing the winning limit, so pay close attention to them. However, there are a few secondary patterns that could be very strong at Fork.
For the anglers focusing on the transition areas between spawn and postspawn habitat, perhaps in the 6- to 12-foot range, look for swim jigs, wacky rigs and squarebills along that intermediate depth line.
The other thing you can count on is a shad spawn, and that means aggressively feeding fat bass. And shad spawns generally occur in shallow water and bass feeding topside. Topwater could win, too.
What can you gather from all of this? It’s a safe bet that it’s going to be very difficult to predict who is going to win. If there’s a way you like to catch bass, there’s a really good chance you’ll be able to catch them that way this week on Lake Fork.
Winning Weight
Will we actually see a tournament that eclipses the “century mark?” It’s very possible considering the timing of late spawners, but that’s a tall order. We’ve heard predictions ranging from 95 pounds all the way up to 128 pounds across four days. Considering the fact that the fish will susceptible to a multitude of presentations, and an occasional bedded fish will play, it’s safe to bet we’ll see 100 to 105 pounds of total weight across four official competition days.
This will be the most impressive Elite Series tournament since Lake Falcon in 2013 where Keith Combs caught over 111 pounds. We may even top that here. And watch out for Combs.
One thing is for sure, by watching the Bassmaster Blog, Bassmaster LIVE and scrolling through our photo galleries, you’ll surely be entertained, and you’ll certainly learn a few things along the way.
Stay tuned, this is going to be a wild ride.