HOUSTON, Texas — On one hand, it seems likely one of the two-day top three anglers will win the 2017 GEICO Bassmaster Classic presented by DICK’S Sporting Goods. Leader Brent Ehrler (43-4), second place Dave Lefebre (41-1) and third place Edwin Evers (39-0) are separated by only 4 ¼ pounds, and all three have been consistent on Lake Conroe, which has been remarkably inconsistent for the rest of the field.
On the other hand, it feels like someone could come from way back and win this thing. There’s a time-tested formula that makes no mathematical sense but always seems to accurately predict what’s possible on the final day of a bass tournament. It states that you can’t comeback from a margin larger than the biggest bass caught in the tournament. So far, that would be Ehrler’s 9-12 caught Friday.
That means everybody below seventh place Kevin VanDam, 7-1 back of Ehrler, has no chance to win this thing, if the old adage holds.
Ehrler is trying to become the ninth angler in B.A.S.S. history to win the Classic by staying in first place wire-to-wire. Cliff Pace the last to do it, in 2013. And certainly the defending champion, Evers, has a shot to win. Evers’ previous two days have fallen remarkably true to form from a year ago when he won at Grand Lake. Evers was 13th on Day 1 at both Grand and Conroe, and he’s third now at Conroe, just like he was at Grand on Day 2 last year. Is Evers destined to repeat? Could be. He’s been astonishingly confident all week, like he knows something the rest of us don’t.
But if you want to really think about the wild possibilities for Sunday’s finale, consider this: Evers trailed leader Jason Christie by 6 pounds, 5 ounces going into the final day, then won by 10 pounds, 5 ounces. Essentially, Evers made up 16 pounds, 10 ounces on the Day 2 leader when he caught that 29-pound, 3-ounce bag on the final day at Grand Lake. And it wasn’t like Christie totally bombed that day; he finished with 12-9, which has been a decent day on Lake Conroe this week.
Everyone thought there would be at least one 30-pound bag caught here during the Classic, but Ehrler’s 23-3 on Day 1 is tops so far. Would anybody be surprised if Conroe produced one of those game-changing limits Sunday? Nope.
Then you must consider the razor-thin margin of error for the leaders. Only Ehrler and Lefebre have caught 20-pound bags both days. Lefebre has had six bites each day – SIX! If you just look at the standings, you’d think he’s wrecking ‘em.
After Saturday’s weigh-in, during a media conference with the top six anglers, they were asked how many keepers they’d caught that day. The answers were as follows: Ehrler, 8 or 10; Lefebre, 6; Evers, 8; Mike Iaconelli, 6; James Elam, 5; and Bradley Roy, 5.
Finally, there’s this: Jacob Powroznik is in 17th place, 15 pounds, 11 ounces behind Ehrler. And he’s still got his eyes on the prize, saying, “Anybody is still in the game. There are so many giants here. If somebody puts together five of them, it could be really, really good.”
Powroznik has a reason for his positive attitude.
“I saw ‘em,” he said. “They didn’t start until about 2 o’clock today. They’re spawning. If they stay, it could be awesome.”
It just feels like a wide range of awesome things could happen on Lake Conroe Sunday.