Seldom, if ever, have Elite Series pre-tournament predictions proven to be this accurate. But after three days of practice before the TNT Fireworks Bassmaster Elite Series at Smith Lake, the anglers knew precisely how this four-day competition was going to unfold.
For starters, they predicted ounces, not pounds, would separate the majority of the field.
“The weights are going to be stacked tight,” said Jordan Lee, the two-time Bassmaster Classic champion who lives in Cullman, Ala., the host city for the tournament.
“I think it’s going to be like a Sabine River tournament, where one pound will separate 20 places (in the standings),” said Jacob Powroznik.
After Day 1 at Smith Lake, it’s every bit of that, plus some. Twenty-four anglers are separated by one pound, from 34th-place Stetson Blaylock and Jason Williamson with 12 pounds even, to 55th-place Austin Felix, Carl Jocumsen and Matt Robertson with 11 pounds even.
On the eve of Thursday’s start, Brandon Palaniuk said, “I think it will be the tightest weights of the entire year. Everybody is going to catch a lot of fish. If you have a 2-pound average, you might finish 65th. If you average 2 ¼ pounds, you might finish 35th.”
A 2-pound average for five fish would be, of course, 10 pounds, and a 2 ¼-pound average would be 11 ¼ pounds. After Day 1, Will Davis Jr. and Shane LeHew are tied for 75th place with 10-2. Partrick Walters and Chris Zaldain are tied for 51st place with 11-5.
Catching bass meeting the 15-inch length limit for both spotted bass and largemouths wasn’t a problem for most, as 92 of the 99 anglers weighed a limit. But the total weight of those five-fish limits ranged from Day 1 tournament leader Hunter Shryock’s 15 pounds, 15 ounces to Tyler Rivet’s 94th-place limit of 7-15.
Six anglers topped the 14-pound mark. Day 2 will prove the accuracy of predictions that consistency is nearly impossible on this deep, 21,000-acre lake dominated by spotted bass.
“I still think a 13 ½-pound average is going to win this,” said Palaniuk after weighing 13-12, which was good for 8th place after Day 1. “I had one 4-pounder. That’s the difference in 8th and 40th. I caught a lot of fish, but not a lot of keepers, and many of those (keepers) where in the 1 ½ to 1 ¾ size.”
Bryan New also had a 4-pounder, a largemouth, in his bag of 14-3, which put him in 4th place. His other four fish were spotted bass.
“Obviously, that 4-pounder goes a long way,” New said. “Who knows what (Friday) brings.”
Switching from a shallow-water pattern, which produced the 4-pounder, to looking deeper with Garmin LiveScope proved to be a difference-maker for New.
“I went ‘Scoping and immediately culled three times after 2 o’clock,” New said.
Steve Kennedy is in 5th place with 14-2. He had a limit early, which gave him the confidence to explore other places and other techniques.
“I caught a limit without hitting the trolling motor in about 20 or 30 minutes,” Kennedy said. “So I had all day to go play. I didn’t cull for six hours.”
Kennedy finally was able to cull about 1:30 with a couple of bigger spotted bass and a 3-10 largemouth.
“It’s insane how many little spotted bass there are in this lake,” Kennedy said. “There’s way more fish here than maybe any other place I know of. (Alabama’s) Lake Martin is close.”
Here’s one more prediction that’s almost guaranteed to prove true: “The (Day 2/Top 50) cut will be determined by one ounce or a tiebreaker,” Palaniuk said Wednesday evening.
After Day 1, four anglers were tied for what amounts to 47th through 50th place with 11-6. Three anglers are tied for 51st with 11-5.
