Elite Analysis Lay Lake – Day 3

Somewhere today Bryan Kerchal is smiling.

The B.A.S.S. Nation champ, who tragically died in a plane crash, remains the only “amateur” to win the Bassmaster Classic, and while that distinction is safe for at least another 10 months, this week’s Elite Series event on Lay Lake may boil down to two of his successors, Brandon Palaniuk and Will Davis Jr. They are in first and third, respectively, with 2022 Bassmaster Classic champ Jason Christie in between.

The burgeoning collegiate bass scheme has rightfully been credited with an influx of talent at the highest level of the sport, but at times it has unfairly usurped some of the Nation’s attention. This week the past champion “weekend” anglers showed out. In addition to Palaniuk, the 2010 champ, and Davis, the 2022 champ, several others cracked the top 50: Pat Schlapper was 29th, Caleb Sumrall finished 41st, and Mike Iaconelli was 48th.

Davis may not be the only Alabamaian or Nation Champ in the top ten, but he is the only rookie. That would normally entail a lot of pressure, but it has to be especially nerve-wracking with freaks like Palaniuk and Jason Christie surrounding him, Alabama pro Matt Herren on his tail, and a streaky Brandon Cobb one more spot back.

It’s probably a three-man race, but nothing’s certain. Christie said he has nothing left. Palaniuk struggled today more than Thursday or Friday. A lot could change. A lot has changed. A lot will change again.

Here are some nuggets of semi-wisdom that entered my brain as I watched:

From Connecticut to Alabama – Kerchal competed in two Bassmaster events in the state of Alabama: the 1993 Bassmaster Classic on Logan Martin, in which he finished last, and the 1994 Alabama Invitational on Eufaula, in which he finished 163rd.

We love the 90s – Despite qualifying for nine Classics, including five in the 1990s, Bernie Schultz (who continues his quest to get back to his first Classic since 2016) never went head-to-head against the late Connecticut angler in a Classic. Kerchal qualified for the 1993 and 1994 championships, while Schultz fished in 1990, 1991, 1995, 1996 and 1998.

Did you know? – Despite hailing from Connecticut, the northernmost B.A.S.S. event that Kerchal fished as a pro was on the Potomac River.

A tale of two bulls – Pending the outcome of this week’s event, Palaniuk has six Bassmaster wins and Christie has eight. The only place that both have won is on Bull Shoals. It was the site of Palaniuk’s first win in 2012, and Christie won there the following year. Notably, when BP won, he turned in the biggest bag of each of the first three days and led wire-to-wire, ultimately winning by nearly 12 pounds. By contrast, Christie came back from 11th place entering the final day with an 18 pound catch to claim victory.

Alabama Love – Three Alabama pros – Davis, Herren and Justin Hamner – made the top 10. Scott Canterbury missed it by 10 ounces.

Ignored by Alabama  – Neither Palaniuk nor Christie has won a B.A.S.S. event in Alabama.

First-timers – If Davis, Herren, or Justin Hamner wins, that will make four first-time B.A.S.S. winners in five Elite events this year.

The win’s the thing – Among active Elite Series pros, Rick Clunn and Larry Nixon have the most Bassmaster wins, with 16 and 14, respectively. Christie and Mike Iaconelli are tied for third with eight apiece, and then come Palaniuk and Greg Hackney, with six apiece. A win by Palaniuk or Christie will upset that apple cart.

Lay Lake Classic and Beyond – When KVD won the Classic trophy at Lay Lake in 2010, Palaniuk had yet to fish as a pro, or to qualify for his first Classic. He won the 2010 Nation (then “Federation”) Championship on the Red River in October of 2010 to qualify for the 2011 Classic on the Louisiana Delta. In that event, he finished 4th. He and winner (again) VanDam fished within sight of each other in Lake Cataouatche.

Comeback kid – At 11:15, Palaniuk had a limit, but only one of them was over 2 pounds, and barely at that. He quickly added an estimated 3-3 and 2-8 to his catch, culling up by three pounds. “What a turn of events,” he said. “All you have to do is put the rally cap on.” Truly, sometimes it feels like he can will good things to happen. He culled several more times throughout the course of the day, including an estimated 3-10 at 2:40pm, which meant that the first five squeakers were all gone.

Day to day – Brandon Cobb is the only angler in the top 10 whose catch improved each day so far. Palaniuk is the only one whose catch has decreased each day.

Middle of the road – With four regular season tournaments left to fish after tomorrow, the following Classic regulars find themselves outside the cut, in the upper forties or low- to mid-fifties in the AOY race heading into today: Jason Christie (44th), Bill Lowen (46th), Brock Mosley (47th), Jacob Powroznik (48th), Scott Martin (50th), Keith Combs (51st), Cory Johnston (55th). Christie should now be back inside.

Act now, supplies are limited – Several northern hammers will all need to finish strong to have a shot at the Classic. Heading into today, Taku Ito, Josh Douglas and Chad Pipkens were in 82nd, 83rd and 84th, respectively, in the AOY Race.

Great seasons – In a fine blog this morning, Shaye Baker compared Brandon Cobb’s 2023 season to the run that Aaron Martens went on in 2015, when he had five top tens, including wins at Lake Havasu and the Upper Chesapeake Bay. That in turn reminded me of what may have been the greatest run in Elite Series history – Skeet Reese to start the 2010 season. In the first five tournaments that year he finished 1st, 5th, 1st, 5th and 2nd. Notably, due to a wrinkle in the postseason points system, he did not win AOY that year.

Resting on his laurels – For the third straight day, Jeff Gustafson failed to catch even a single smallmouth.

Steve Kennedy, striper king – “I guarantee you I caught more weight than anyone else in this tournament,” he said of his multispecies effort. “But even they weren’t there today.”

Twenty three pounds says a lot – Jason Christie: “I’m kind of speechless.”