Elite Analysis – Day 3 Lake Murray

As their careers progress, athletes are told to “act like they’ve been there before.” Patrick Walters doesn’t have to act, because it seems like at least once or twice every year he places himself into this position – leading heading into the final day, with a big chasm separating him from anyone trying to knock him out of the hot seat.

Whether it’s setting the all-time record for margin of victory, or the all-time record for four days of smallmouths, the dude makes it look easy. The way those shorts bunch up, he may not be so fast afoot, but for some reason he always seems to be running downhill.

“No lead is big enough, I promise you,” he told Dave Mercer onstage, but it was hard to tell if he even believed himself. His career may be short by historical standards, but he’s developing into one of the greatest closers in Bassmaster history. This week is not a referendum on his greatness, so if he somehow stumbles it won’t be crippling, but you can bet the house he’s not going to falter. Someone will have to beat him, and that’s not easy.

Yesterday was his worst day so far, missing 20 pounds by a mere 3 ounces, yet if that’s what he’d caught all three days he’d still be in the lead. It just feels like everyone else has fishing for second since before the event started.

Here’s what I saw, thought and speculated on a day when the legend of this one young pro continued to grow:

Is it a team sport? – In recent tournaments, we’ve often seen that in this otherwise fiercely-individual sport, sometimes two heads are better than one. At the Harris Chain, the Johnston brothers shared info (and winnings), as they always do. Today we saw Trey McKinney (3rd, 58-13)  and JT Thompkins (2nd, 58-15) doing the same (minus the winnings part). There’s nothing unethical or illegal about it. Anglers have been doing it for years. I recall Ott DeFoe and Andy Montgomery doing the same, with the former giving the latter a spot in Escanaba that helped Montgomery qualify for a Classic. I have occasionally heard some grumbling about the practice, and the obvious response is, “Get a partner of your own.” The problem is not necessarily finding someone, but finding someone you can trust in the long term. Most of these types of partnerships eventually dissolve when one party feels he’s giving more than he’s getting back. For the Johnstons and the rookies, it seems to be a beneficial arrangement.

What’s the winning weight? – Last year Drew Benton (39th, 46-11) won with 87 pounds even, but that tournament was three weeks earlier in the year, and it was expected that the weights would go down this year. They did, but not by all that much. As Bernie Schultz (71st, 28-1) said of Murray’s bass on Live Mix today, “They almost look prespawn rather than post-spawn.” Patrick Walters has averaged just about 22-6 per day. If he hits that mark tomorrow, he’ll have 89-9, eclipsing Benton’s 2023 total. Then again, he’s only hit that mark once this week, on Day One. The more meaningful difference will likely be further down the scorecard, as the nine top finishers all topped 80 pounds last year, including Walters, who finished 4th with 83-9. He’ll need 16-6 to hit that mark again. That would be more than 3 pounds less than his lowest weight so far this week.

Livesay got forked – Before the season, Lee Livesay (4th, 57-6) certainly had the Lake Fork derby circled on his calendar, but when it’s over it almost certainly will be the one he’ll wish he had back. He’s been in the money in every event except Fork this year, including a 5th place finish in the Classic, and is poised to have his best regular season finish of the year so far. He entered this tournament just inside the 2025 Classic cutline. But for the 82nd place finish on his home pond, he wouldn’t be in the running for AOY now, but he’d be far closer than the mid-twenties position that he currently holds.

Palmetto State supremacy – Through six events this year – five Elites (including this one, and the Classic) – this is the first one where multiple anglers from the home state have made the top 10. In fact, Patrick Walters and JT Thompkins are currently first and second. Ben Milliken was the only Texan to fish Day Four at Toledo Bend and Lake Fork. Drew Benton was the only Floridian to fish Day Four at the St. Johns. No one from Florida or Oklahoma made the top ten at the Harris Chain or Grand Lake, respectively.

What’s the time limit? – Shepard Patrick Walters, son of tournament leader Patrick Walters, is just about three months old. Does that make him too old to attribute any ensuing win to the “baby pattern”?

Ups and downs – Of the top ten anglers, two – JT Thompkins and Will Davis Jr. (8th, 54-15) – have seen their weights go down each day. No one in the top ten has seen his weight go up every day.

Tempus fugit – You know it’s right around the midpoint of the season when you start inadvertently humming the jingles from the commercials on Bass Live and Live Mix.

More than glass half full – Luke Palmer (26th, 49-12) weighed in the big fish of the tournament so far today, a 7-4 Lake Murray brute, but it might not have happened if he’d kept a previously-hooked bass buttoned. When it came undone, the 7 took its place and for the effort got a free air-conditioned ride to the weigh-in. “That was the first time I’ve ever been happy to lose a 5-pounder,” Palmer said.

John Cox (20th, 50-10) – “About halfway through each day I did wish I had forward-facing on there.”

JT Thompkins – “I can almost catch ‘em better when they’re not schooling.”

Lee Livesay – “I caught one on my Amazon Woodchopper – been training for this in the Amazon this winter.”

Greg Hackney (97th, 19-4) on Live Mix – “I decided to come here and talk about what Trey’s doing and not use mine.”

Brandon Palaniuk (53rd, 29-12), agreeing with Hackney on Live Mix – “It’s super-simple, but you have to disregard everything else you know.”

Nickname of the day – “The Fruit Bat” (AKA, Kyle Patrick, who finished 37th with 47-8 after falling in and dousing nearby Lee Livesay).

About to be backordered again – Jackall Riser. [Pro Tip: Write yourself a note to order baits like this during the offseason when we’re a few month on either side of the herring spawn.]

The old ball and chain – Every time we start to think the Carolina Rig is dead, someone like Patrick Walters shows that it never stopped being effective.

Veterans – It’s been almost exactly 10 years since veteran stars Mike Iaconelli and John Crews made the top ten in the same Bassmaster event. From May 15-18, 2014, they competed in an Elite Series event at Dardanelle. Ike finished 6th and Crews was 9th. They’ll have to wait at least one more derby, since they finished 18th and 17th, respectively. Crews missed the cut by 1-11 and Ike missed it by 2-7.

Veterans II – What is it about Lake Murray that jibes so well with Mike Iaconelli’s skillset? Since returning to the Elite Series in 2022, he has not performed up to his expected standards, missing the Classics and making only four top twenties. Two of them have come here at Murray, where he finished 11th last year and 18th this year. Going back even further, he finished 3rd at Murray in 2011 and led for a period of time at the 2000 Megabucks here. He mentioned onstage that while there are not bluebacks on the fisheries closer to his New Jersey home, many of the northeastern waters where he learned to fish have alewives, which are related and often behave similarly.

Veterans III – I’m not as experienced or nearly as old as Steve Bowman, but today I realized that I’ve been around a while when I recalled that the late Texas pro David Wharton won twice at Murray – Top 100s in 1991 and 1993. That was back when Murray was a grass lake and Wharton, a Rayburn expert, knew how to use the day’s technology to find little intricacies in the vegetation and then exploit them. He was one of the first tour level pros I got to know so despite only fishing together a few times, he had an outsized impact on my introduction to the sport. Wharton passed away in 2009.

1980s movie reference of the day – The only thing that seems likely to prevent Walters from winning is a banana in the tailpipe.

One-Time walk up music options for tomorrow

  • The Bangles, “Manic Monday”
  • Alice Cooper, “School’s Out”
  • The Royal Teens, “Short Shorts”