Elite Analysis – Day 2 Lake Murray

Day 1 leader Patrick Walters held serve. In fact, he extended his lead on Day 2 by nearly 2 pounds. Still, he knows that he can’t hold back Sunday at Lake Murray.

“I’m going to burn everything to the ground tomorrow,” he said.

It’s Mother’s Day tomorrow, and the new father would love to give his wife Emily another great present by getting one step closer to a check for a hundred grand. He made it look easy today, but it was one of the rare Elite Series events where even most of the leaders looked confused at times.

Either they knew where the fish were and couldn’t get on them due to the presence of other anglers, or else they were on the fish and their quarry didn’t bite as expected. I bought into the conventional wisdom that the flip-flopped boat order would create a major shakeup, but it seems the morning bite was overhyped.

I watched carefully, confused as to what was happening and what might ensue later, but I’m thrilled that we still have a wide open derby. It’s nice to see this legion of uber-confident anglers (and occasional sandbaggers) being forced to reinvent the wheel once in a while. Here’s what I think about what we saw and heard today:

Twenties – Yesterday we saw 13 bags of 20 pounds or more come to the scales. Today it seemed for a long time like we wouldn’t see any, until finally a few trickled in during the latter half of the weigh-in. Jordan Lee (7th, 38-0) made the big leap from 35th to 7th. Mark Frazier’s 20-4 helped him move from 90th all the way to 32nd, well inside the cut. Bernie Schultz had the day’s biggest limit, 20-8, and while he won’t fish on Sunday, he moved up 29 places, gaining valuable points.

Cut weight math – Yesterday’s 50th place angler, Jacob Powroznik (23rd, 34-13), weighed in 16-6. Two times that would be 32-12, and the traditional 2X+1 formula would place the hurdle to fish Day Three at 33-12. This is the fairly rare occasion where the cut weight fell substantially off the pace, landing at exactly 30 pounds. That’s 2-12 below a doubling of the Day One level.

Palmetto State anglers – After Day One, Patrick Walters, in 1st, and JT Thompkins in 7th, were the only South Carolina pros inside the top 50 cut. They were joined today by Jason Williamson (58th to 38th) and Brandon Cobb (72nd to 43rd). Bryan New (60th) missed the cut but gained 10 places. Todd Auten was the only home stater who fell – he dropped from 66th to 88th.

Big fish energy – We still haven’t seen the giants that live here show up. Day One’s big fish was Joseph Webster’s 6-6 and today’s was Bryan Schmitt’s 6-3. “These fish set up in weight classes,“ Davy Hite told us. Sometime, somewhere, someone is going to be around a group of giants. Chris Johnston thought it was about to be him. “There was a wolfpack following,” he told Dave Mercer. “I think they were all about sevens.” A single 7-pounder could make a huge difference to one angler’s day. A couple of them could make a substantial difference to his week or even his career.

Double or nothing – Shortly before 1:20 pm, Lee Livesay hooked two bass on his topwater and managed to get both of them to the boat without incident or struggle. Many anglers would’ve given their favorite lure for either or both of those fish. At the time, though, Livesay had a limit for an estimated 13 ½ pounds and the two went back into the drink without even checking them closely.

Does boat order matter? – If the early morning bite fires again tomorrow, it could prevent anglers in the bottom half of the remaining 50 from moving up. As Ronnie Moore pointed out on Live today, there will be two equal flights, spaced out – accordingly, even though Mike Huff (25th, 33-13) and David Gaston (26th, 33-12) are just an ounce apart, that margin could have huge ramifications for their respective fishing opportunities.

Age is Jjst a number – Fishing his 501st BASS event, Rick Clunn made the cut to Day Three and currently holds 40th place with 31-5 over two days. He finished 9th at the 1991 Top 100 here at Lake Murray, which took place from October 16-19 of that year, slightly before Jordan Lee turned four months old. Four other members of this week’s top ten were not born at that time. Bryan Schmitt (10th, 36-13), the oldest in the top ten, was 10 years old.

Rookie numbers – Seven of the ten rookies in the field will fish again on Day Three. John Garrett fell from 7th to 22nd, but the biggest drop amongst their class was Ben Milliken, who didn’t just fall out of the top ten, but out of the cut altogether. With two small fish today, he finished 85th with a two-day total of 25-8. Robert Gee only caught 3 more ounces today than he caught on Day One, but his consistency propelled him from 54th to 34th.

Squirmers – Are the Lake Murray strain of bass somehow distinct? Is it because they spend their lives building muscle by chasing pelagic baitfish? I don’t recall another weigh-in where so many anglers had trouble keeping flopping fish firmly in their grasp – and this is a time of year when the fish are supposed to be beaten up and weak.

Shelby LeHew — “I didn’t come two hours to watch you suck.” Fortunately, her husband Shane, who was among the last anglers to weigh in, snuck into the cut in 45th with 30-13.

A thousand dollars an ounce – The difference between 50th place and missing the cut include not just $10,000, but also a chance to gain even more points by moving up tomorrow. Five anglers fell short of the 30 pound cut weight by 10 ounces or less. That’s a culling error, or a few spit-up herring.

Titleholders – Six of the seven past Bassmaster Classic winners in the field – Jordan Lee, Rick Clunn, Jeff Gustafson, Mike Iaconelli, Justin Hamner and Hank Cherry – made the cut. Jason Christie (88th), who has an enviable record in South Carolina, will have the day off to celebrate Mother’s Day. Of the nine past AOYs in the field, only two – Clunn and Ike, who are both also Classic winners – made the cut. The seven anglers who’ve won AOY but not a Classic all missed the cut.

Mark Zona – “This is the Ray Hanselman we’ve been waiting for.” Hanselman’s had some success at BASS, qualifying for the 2020 and 2022 Classics, but many fishing fans expected more after his great success on other circuits. After a tough start to the 2024 season, with three missed checks, including two bombs in his home state of Texas, Reelin’ Ray finished 8th at the St. Johns River and is in 18th place now. That may seem like a lot of ground to make up to get back in the hunt, but he’s only 1 pound 4 ounces behind 10th, and a good day could allow him to make consecutive top tens.

Hank Cherry (33rd, 32-7) – “The herring are wanting something long and hard to get on. That sounds weird – don’t take it the wrong way.”

Maybe a little bit of H2O next time – Neither Kenta Kimura’s Red Bulls nor Mat Robertson’s fishbowls full of tequila propelled them to Day Three. They finished 57th and 89th, respectively. Robertson took the opposite lesson than some others might have from his precipitous decline: “I guess I didn’t get into her enough,” he said.

Logan Parks (39th, 31-8) — “Unfortunately my schoolers weren’t schooling too good today.”

Bryant Smith (66th, 28-5) — “That sophomore slump. It’s a real thing.”

Caleb Kuphall (58th, 28-15) — “Six hours without a bite is a long time.”

Joey Cifuentes (99th, 16-3) – “I just need a hug.”

Gerald Swindle (80th, 26-6) — “I feel like I’m blindfolded fighting Mike Tyson.”

1980s Movie Reference – When I hear Kyle Norsetter’s voice on stage I could swear it’s Mike Damone.