Elite Analysis – Day 2 at St. Lawrence River

Is it unreasonable for me to be disappointed that no one caught 30 pounds today? The slackers didn’t even hit 28.

Of course, there were four bags over 27 pounds, and one apiece over 26 and 25, so it wasn’t a total loss. Twenty pounds used to be the marker of a solid performance on this fishery, but that’s no longer the case.

“Twenty-one pounds anywhere else you go is a stellar day,” said reigning Classic champ and noted smallmouth expert Jeff Gustafson. He averaged over 20 pounds a day and didn’t qualify to fish Saturday. Indeed, it appears that 22 is the new 20 as 40 percent of the field weighed in 22 pounds or more today.

What kind of tournament is it when four anglers in the bottom 14 have a 22-pound day? Someone start testing these anglers (or perhaps the bass) for performance-enhancing substances.

“Hopefully today was my bad day,” past champ Chris Johnston said unironically about his 24 pound 11 ounce bag. He’s on pace to earn his family’s second bronze Century Belt, but four other anglers are also above 50 pounds after two days of competition and all of them are on place to eclipse the four-day smallmouth record Jay Przekurat set last year. Przekurat looked shellshocked by his 19-4 catch today, which dropped him from 15th to 32nd and effectively means that he has no chance of repeating.

Right now, Kyle Welcher seems to be in the driver’s seat with respect to all sorts of titles. The only one he can’t win is Rookie of the Year, simply because that ship has sailed. It’s been the year of the rookie – indeed, there are three of them in the top nine – but the 3rd year pro is trying to lay down the law.

Everybody Hurts – Seeing Brandon Palaniuk in 38th place in the AOY race after Day One, inside the Bassmaster Classic cut but barely, is a reminder of how talented this field is and the fact that a Classic spot is not guaranteed. With confidence, I’d mentally penciled him into the Classic in perpetuity, or at least as long as he wanted to be there (recognizing that he failed to qualify for the 2020 cut when he temporarily left for another circuit), but there’s a very real chance that someday he’ll try and miss. Early in his career, Mike Iaconelli made a statement that was interpreted to mean that he thought he’d never miss a Classic, and when he subsequently failed to qualify for one the schadenfreude flowed freely. Even the greats see streaks end. Rick Clunn fished 28 Bassmaster Classics in a row from 1974 through 2001. Most of us assumed that Kevin VanDam would someday exceed that mark, but he “only” fished 24 consecutively before failing to qualify for the 2015 Classic on Hartwell. I don’t think that anyone would take overt pleasure in seeing Palaniuk fail to qualify for the championship, but not having a proven closer in the field might provide some sort of infinitesimal benefit to those who are.

Ending a Tough Year – Per BassTrakk, Chris Zaldain was the first angler to 20 pounds today, eventually culled up to 24-13 and now sits in 13th place, nearly 6 pounds off the lead. Absent a win this week, he will not fish the 2024 Classic, missing the Big Show for the first time since 2018. His best regular season finish that year was 18th at Kentucky Lake, although he was consistent enough that he finished the season in 20th place overall. As he has seen his public persona continue to rise this year, thanks in part to a popular podcast and a new deal with Bass Pro Shops, he’s had his worst season in memory. Until this week, his only two regular season top 50 finishes came at Santee and St. Clair, where he finished 38th and 28th, respectively. Depending on what happens tomorrow, this could not only be the first year since 2020 that he doesn’t have at least two top five finishes in Elite competition, but also the first year since 2018 that he doesn’t have any. In 2019, he had a remarkable four top tens, including two runner-up finishes and a 3rd place finish.

Fear the Turtle – Early in his career Bill Lowen, historically the ultimate limit-getter, seemed to be another angler who’d make the Classic every year or nearly every year – but after making seven in a row from 2011 to 2017, he’s missed four of the last six, including the last two. He earned checks in the first five BASS tournaments he fished on the St. Lawrence, but didn’t make the cut in the last two. That kind of makes sense for an angler who’s typically thought of as a shallow largemouth grinder – but he seems to have figured things out again. He’s caught 48-14 over two days to land in 6th and thereby glide back into the big show – which will be at a time and place that should play to his skillset.

Smallmouth Bizarro World – “He’s small but I’ll take him,” said Bryant Smith as he prepared to weigh his second fish of the day today, which turned out to be an estimated 4-6. Small by comparison to his first fish of the day and the five he brought to the scales yesterday, but not only would that be many anglers’ PB, but five of them would add up to a 21-14 limit. He must’ve realized how ridiculous it sounded because he quickly added, “I guess I should say he’s small for the St. Lawrence.” He weighed 19-4 today after yesterday’s record-setting effort, and he’ now in 8th place, less than 5 pounds out of the lead.

Cut Weight Math – Yesterday the 50th place angler weighed in 19-15 of St. Lawrence bass. Today’s cut mark was 40-14, which nailed the traditional 2X+1 benchmark dead on the nose.

Unsung Hero of the First Two Days – A Chatterbait, or bladed jig, seemingly brought back from the Elite Series graveyard, even though anglers across the country and across the world never put it down. “It is fun to see someone catch one shallow,” Mark Zona said. “Remember those days?”

Move over Hardy Boys – “Cooper Gallant” still sounds to me like he should be the protagonist in a 1950 serial set of novels about a boy detective.

Famous Claytons – Clayton Kershaw (three-time Cy Young award winner), Merry Clayton (“Gimme Shelter” background singer), Clayton Moore (Lone Ranger).

A More Streamlined  Record Book – “Smith” is easier to spell than “Economou.”

Fishing Foodies – Yesterday we heard Joey Cifuentes call a smallmouth a “Grande Chalupa,” adding to Matty Wong’s “Brown Spicy Meatballs.”  Today Welcher filled his livewell with 27 pounds 12 ounces of “Meat Pies.”

You are what you eat, according to Gary Clouse – “I think I’m going to start eating gobies myself. Maybe I’ll muscle up.”

Mini-Factoid I Learned Today – Cole Sands was born in Alaska.

You Want Matt Robertson in Your Fantasy Football League – He’s convinced that Patrick Mahomes plays for the 49ers.

So long, farewell – Today was the last day of half of the Elite field’s regular season. For some of them, it was the last day of their Elite Series career. There were a few tears. As it gets increasingly more difficult to qualify through the Opens, they certainly know the opportunity that they’d lost.