Elite Analysis – Day 1 St. Lawrence River

Get an in-depth analysis from Pete Robbins on Day 1 of the Humminbird Bassmaster Elite at the St. Lawrence River.

In baseball, you’re not supposed to mention it when someone is pitching a perfect game. Teammates will avoid the pitcher while he still has a shot, heading to the other end of bench, avoiding eye contact. Today Ronnie Moore went full taboo – he told us that in 20 total days of Elite Series competition on the St. Lawrence River, Chris Johnston has pitched the equivalent of a perfect game. He’d never been outside the Top 10 in any of them.

All seemed well as Johnston amassed a big bag, and on a normal venue 23 pounds, 2 ounces of bronze would keep that streak going.

At the St. Lawrence, it’s not enough, however.

Johnston’s big bag hasn’t knocked him out of contention for anything, but it placed him in a disappointing three-way tie for 15th place. However, even if he loses the battle he may still win the war, because he’s 15 places ahead of prior Progressive Bassmaster Angler of the Year leader Justin Hamner.

Indeed, all will be forgiven if Chris becomes the first Elite Series Angler of the Year from outside the United States. If not, Ronnie’s going to be in a special kind of hot seat, public enemy No. 1 in Canada.

On a day when 20-pound bags produced pained expressions, and bronze became the new gold, here’s what I saw and heard from Waddington, New York:

Brotherly competition – It’s no secret that brothers Chris and Cory Johnston (4th, 25-0) work together and share both information and winnings. They entered the tournament in 2nd and 7th, respectively, in the Angler of the Year race, with only Chris likely having a legit shot at the title. Is there a scenario, however, where Cory ends up costing Chris that opportunity, and in doing so costing himself some serious cash? Let’s say after Day Three Cory is in 10th and Chris is in 11th, just a point or two out of the AOY. But for his brother, he’d have made it to Championship Sunday, with an opportunity to move up, but now he can’t fish. His season is over and his ultimate destiny is outside of his hands. I realize that it’s improbable, and not something they’d gameplan for one way or another, but it’s definitely possible.

International Century Club belt competition – Prior to this event there have been six smallmouth Century Belts in BASS competition, all from this body of water. Japan has two, via Kyoya Fujita (3rd, 25-8) and Taku Ito (1st, 26-2). Canada has two, through the Johnston brothers, and Americans Jay Przekurat (56th, 20-4) and Patrick Walters (6th, 24-12) each have one. I expect we’ll see that international sporting tie broken this week. Right now we have four anglers on pace to do it – including those same two Japanese pros, Cory Johnston, and would-be first-timer Robert Gee (2nd, 25-12). Also, remember that when Walters set the record last year, he had under 25 pounds on both Day One and Day Four.

24 hours in a day, 24 pounds in a really good day – For the third straight year, all 10 members of the Day One top ten had over 24 pounds.

BP struggles – Earlier in his career, the northern swing was a chance for Brandon Palaniuk (100th, 10-4) to earn some cash, improve or solidify his place in the standings, or clinch an AOY title. These past two years, however, they’ve shockingly been his Achilles Heel. Last year he was 56th at Champlain and 91st at the St. Lawrence, but still easily made the Bassmaster Classic. This year he was 89th at Champlain, and depending on how the dominoes fall tomorrow could have played himself out of contention for the 2025 Classic.

The Charlie Hartley All-Stars – I certainly recognize that tournament fishing is a professional endeavor, and I’d expect the competitors to take it seriously, but in a year marked by unusual levels of discord and negativity, there are a few anglers who have consistently smiled and made things fun: Thanks to John Cox, Tyler Williams, Taku Ito and Justin Hamner for the smiles…and of course Steve Kennedy, who deserves a lifetime achievement award.

Clunn’s 50th – Rick Clunn’s first BASS event on this waterway was in 1985, in a New York Invitational won by Jimmy Houston with an average of less than 15 pounds a day. Clunn came in 40th out of over 280 competitors with 25-7 over three days. The only angler in today’s top ten who was born then was Cory Johnston, and he was just four months old. Seven years later Clunn won the 1992 New York Invitational out of Clayton with 44-2 (three days), one of his 16 BASS victories. Five anglers in today’s top ten were not born then, either: Taku Ito, Robert Gee, Kyoya Fujita, Patrick Walters and Jacob Foutz. Clunn is in 65th today with 19-8.

Cut weight math – All year long I’ve been trying to predict the Day Two cut weight based on what the field caught on Day One, combined with various factors like weather and fishing pressure. Sometimes I estimate it at twice the Day One cut. Sometimes it’s twice plus a pound or minus a little. I’m not even guessing on this one. Today’s 50th place angler had 20-12, so double that and you get 41-08. I won’t be surprised if it’s 44. This place is just that good and no one can lay off their fish tomorrow, especially with the likelihood of wind and rain on Saturday.

What is too far out? – Assuming it takes somewhere in the range of 41 pounds to get to Saturday, and a 26 pound bag is possible (remember, Bryant Smith had 29-05 on Day One last year) that would place anyone at 15 pounds or higher within not-unreasonable range of fishing on Saturday. Only eight anglers caught under 15 pounds today.

Mea culpa – In my Fantasy Fishing column I discounted 2023 Classic champ Jeff Gustafson’s chances of shooting for the win because I felt that his comparatively slow boat might preclude him from running to Lake Ontario. He proved me wrong by making the run today, leaving himself with a mere 3 hours to fish, which allowed him to amass 22-9, enough for 19th place.

Leaping lizards – All of the top nine anglers on Day One are effectively inside the Classic cut. Shane LeHew entered the day in 47th, but his 5th place position will improve that substantially. If any of them were to win, it would just pull in another Elite somewhere in the forties in the standings. Should 10th place angler Joey Cifuentes win, however, he will reap substantial benefits. He entered the event in 99th in AOY, and short of winning a tournament there’s no way for him to compete at Ray Roberts next March.

Inhaler sponsorship? –It seems to me that anglers breathe harder and louder when fighting smallmouth than when fighting largemouth.

Standing alone – It was nice to hear a big cheering section for rookie Tim Dube and to see him weigh in a 22-6 sack, which has him in 24th place. He doesn’t necessarily get lumped in with the rest of this exceptional rookie class because he didn’t qualify from the Opens, and because one of them seems to do something exceptional every week. Still, he’s survived the first year and can hold his head high.

Justin Atkins – “The biggest thing is making my first Bassmaster Classic.” The former Forrest Wood Cup champion entered the tournament in 24th place in the AOY race. A 21-7 first day bag has him in 42nd and all but assuredly in the big dance.

Trey McKinney – “I need to read more. I don’t like reading.” Per Zona, he recognizes that if he does not win AOY or ROY, he may not be able to blame any on-the-water shortcomings, but rather his understanding of tournament procedures and protocol.

Cody Huff (39th, 21-9) – “It’s a lot of fun catching 21, but it doesn’t do you a lot of good here.”

Matty Wong (92nd, 15-12) – “Two little mini meatballs.” The first angler to weigh in could not cull out his two smallest smallmouth.

Hunter Shryock (40th, 21-8) – “I drove a lot more than I fished today. I spent about $300 and I’m going to do it all over tomorrow.”

Joey Cifuentes (10th, 24-1) – “If they will bite my bait, I’ll have a good tournament.”

Tommy Sanders – “I don’t think we’ve ever had a freshman dance.” He was noting the presence of rookies Robert Gee, Trey McKinney and JT Thompkins within shouting distance of one another. They ended the day in 2nd, 13th and 43rd, so it looks like everyone found a dance partner.