The midway point of a 4-day tournament is way too soon to start making any predictions. However, after two full days of competition, we can certainly identify numerical comparisons that lay foundational relevance for emerging storylines.
The Day-2 cut sent the top 47 anglers on to Semi-final Saturday and looking at the Top 10 from that group, we see clear examples of consistency and what we’ll call the big-bag factor. The latter makes no insinuation of luck; only the impact a large limit can make.
On the consistent side, no one did it better than Austin Felix who posted an even 25 pounds each day. He placed ninth on Day and improved to third.
Other highly consistent anglers with mere ounces separating their Day 1 and Day 2 weights were:
| Day 1 | Day 2 | |
| Patrick Walters | 24-7 (11th) | 24-13 (5th) |
| Greg Hackney | 24-4 (12th) | 24-12 (6th) |
| Chris Johnston | 24-10 (10th) | 24-6 (7th) |
Notably, Chris Johnston won the 2020 St. Lawrence River tournament.
The big bag factor buoyed current leader Jay Przekurat, who placed second on Day 1 with 26-13 and rose to the top spot despite a slight slip in productivity with 25-8.
At the other end of our comparison, Day 1 leader Jacob Foutz put opened with 27-15 — the event’s heaviest bag. That early positioning proved advantageous when a slower Day 2 yielded only 20-2. Foutz started Semi-final Saturday in 10th.
Elsewhere, Cory Johnston, who won the 2021 Bassmaster Northern Open on this fishery, placed third on Day 1 with 26-3 and gained a spot in the second round after weighing a smaller bag of 24-5.
For three others, big Day 2 bags significantly helped their cause.
Stetson Blaylock placed 32nd on Day 1 with 21-15, but he surged up to fourth after posting the event’s second-heaviest bag, 27-11.
Bob Downey’s first-round limit of 22-13 put him in 21st place until he added 25-11 and rose to eighth.
Takumi Ito, who won last year’s St. Lawrence River tournament, caught a 26th-place limit of 22-5 on Day 1. He improved to ninth by adding 26-1.
Interestingly, Ito’s ahead of where he was this time last year. During that 2021 event, he placed 38th on Day 1 with 17-15, rose to 11th with a second-round limit of 22-14, and reached Championship Sunday with a Day-3 limit of 23-3. In the final round, Ito blasted up from seventh place with a final limit of 26 pounds.
Ito and many others vying for one of 10 final-round spots have proven their ability to rally with big bags. Just look at “the two Drews”:
Drew Benton’s Day-1 bag of 20-15 put him in 46th, but adding 26 pounds a day later pushed him up 31 spots to 15th.
Drew Cook owned the biggest move of Day 2 after rebounding from a 66th-place effort of 19-6 with a statement-making bag that went 27-6 and lifted him to 17th.
Now such numerical analyses simply comprise an expository presentation of facts with no suggestion or implication of what’s to come. Fact is, giant smallmouth can show up at any moment and dramatically alter someone’s standing.
Conversely, those day-makers can just as easily come unbuttoned and break your heart.
Generally, a slow-and-steady strategy works well on most fisheries, but in venues such as Lake Fork, Florida’s Harris Chain, and the St. Lawrence River you can never discount the home run potential.
That said, you have to make those moments count. By the midway point, you gotta get yourself near the top.
We’ll no doubt hear tales of triumph and tragedy during the Day 3 weigh-ins. In the end, whether the consistency of the big fish factor determines a champion will likely come down to execution — who best plays the hand they’re dealt.
